Puppy Signs!!...

[EWO]

Personally I do not think a person can accurately predict what a dog will be when they are 6-7-8 weeks old. One can put all the odds in his favor and can end up with an exceptional litter. Once can know all there is to know about the family from generations 1-6 or to 8 or to 10.

He can believe this particular puppy will do this or do that, and he can even say I told you what he would do some years later. But he didn't know.

I have always questioned high percentages because of the variables involved. (Laboratory background) The breeder can be the absolute best. The family can be absolute best. And in turn the dogs can be the absolute best.

No breeder keeps everything.

The variable I always question is finding an extremely high percentage of people who will afford the breeder, the family and the dog the opportunity to shine through. If I go to a show, or a gathering, or in a forum or wherever, and 7 out of 10 people are basically morons the odds of those other three getting enough dogs to maintain a high percentage of a family is a stretch.

At some point people drag down the family name.

EWO

[kid]

If you are breeding dogs well, there should be several fine picks in the litter, not just one.

Still, there can sometimes be pups which are exemplary.

Whether they are "game" or not should have been resolved in the breeding decisions made on the way up the genetic tree to where you're at.

The more solid the percentages behind you (meaning the parents + their littermates; grandparents + their littermates, etc.), the less you even have to worry about that.

The bigger holes in the percentages behind you, the more you will have to worry about gameness (and the less reason to even make the breeding in the first place).

If you have a truly high-percentage, quality line you aren't "hoping" they will be game, you're pretty much confident that your pups will be gamer than the common bullshit out there.

What you're tinkering with is the ability on top of the gameness.

Some pups will simply be stronger and better than the others.

For ability, you're pretty much narrowing it down to strength, speed, and intelligence.

The breeder himself has to have a respectable degree of the latter in order to properly assess these traits.

The balance/stance of the pups; how they move; how they play; what they do.

If you are breeding your own family of dogs, and have repeatedly and consistently raised litters off the same line, all bred for the same style/purpose, then YES, you should easily be able to spot those pups who have achieved the "genetic bullseye."

Most of your pups should "hit the target," but there will be one or two who may hit the bullseye (or pretty close to it).

But if you're just randomly breeding dogs together, from different lines, with different traits, and with differing percentages behind them (that mostly can't even hit the target), then you're crap-shooting and not being very focused in your genetic selection.

Jack

good stuff

[gizmo]

The 1 who keeps his/her littermates ALL at bay after getting ganged up on is usually the hardest biting and the slickest IMO

[Officially Retired]

Personally I do not think a person can accurately predict what a dog will be when they are 6-7-8 weeks old. One can put all the odds in his favor and can end up with an exceptional litter. Once can know all there is to know about the family from generations 1-6 or to 8 or to 10.

He can believe this particular puppy will do this or do that, and he can even say I told you what he would do some years later. But he didn't know.

I understand what you're saying: in the strictest, Cartesian, sense of the word "knowledge," no one can know anything.

If you want to operate under the same high standard, set by René Descartes, famous French philosopher, you could be deceived as to everything you think you know.
According to René Descartes, he might have not really existed as a "man" himself.
He could be a brain in a vat, and all of his senses that he thinks he has could be illusions.

The only thing René Descartes could absolutely, positively, know is that "there is thinking going on" ... and for there to be "thinking" going on, René Descartes allowed himself only one logical conclusion: I think therefore I am.

If you want to hold true knowledge to this high of a standard, you're right, none of us knows absolutely anything, except that there is thinking going on and that "we" are the one doing the thinking.

So within this context, I agree with you.

That admitted, I agree ... even the best breeder can't "know" how his pups are going to turn out; but can have a very educated guess

I have always questioned high percentages because of the variables involved. (Laboratory background) The breeder can be the absolute best. The family can be absolute best. And in turn the dogs can be the absolute best.

No breeder keeps everything.

The variable I always question is finding an extremely high percentage of people who will afford the breeder, the family and the dog the opportunity to shine through. If I go to a show, or a gathering, or in a forum or wherever, and 7 out of 10 people are basically morons the odds of those other three getting enough dogs to maintain a high percentage of a family is a stretch.

Actually, the exact opposite conclusion should be drawn: some bloodlines really aren't all that good. Certain dogmen develop a group of solid, but basically mediocre dogs, probably game (but not too bright and not too talented), but this group of dogs happens to be in the hands of a highly knowledgeable, very competitive conditioner. These dogs will win a lot of matches for this conditioner, but as soon as they get sold, the same group of dogs can't scrape 2 wins in a row together. Why? Because the typical, stupid dog men who get them aren't as good at conditioning, so these mediocre dogs quickly look substandard if compromised by bad keeps, etc. They only were made to look truly good because the quality of the dogs is actually so-so; it was the man's keep and conditioning which were truly outstanding.

By contrast, the breeder who is able to send his dogs anywhere, to all 4 corners of the earth, every continent, in various hands, with varying levels of competency ... so if that breeder is able to send his dogs, literally "everywhere," and when those dogs get off the plane they invariably kick ass, that is a quality bloodline my friend.

Jack